"The connection between past and future performance has not been firmly established by the stars, historic star ratings or any raw data." "We never intended to suggest that the stars could be used to predict short-term returns or to time fund purchases. They were just a way to sort funds according to past success." "[Our] 5-star bond funds have posted lower aggregate returns than their peers."
Morningstar Mutual Funds
"The key issue is that past performance is a thin reed for how to predict future performance. Expense ratios and turnover are generally better predictors."
William F. Sharpe, Professor of Finance, Nobel Laureate
"Statisticians will tell you that you need 20 years worth of data--that's right, two full decades--to draw statistically meaningful conclusions. Anything less, they say, and you have little to hang your hat on. But here's the problem for fund investors: After 20 successful years of managing a mutual fund, most mangers are ready to retire. In fact, only 22 U.S. stock funds have had the same manager on board for at least two decades--and I wouldn't call all the managers in that bunch skilled."
Susan Dziubinski, University editor with Morningstar.com
“It’s okay to pick stocks. Just don’t take it seriously. I choose a few stocks myself, but I do it strictly for entertainment.”
Merton Miller, Ph.D., 1990 Nobel Prize in Economic Science
“The idea that any single individual, without extra (inside) information or extra market power, can beat the market is extraordinarily unlikely. Yet, the market is full of people who think they can do it and full of other people who believe them.”
Daniel Kahneman, Ph.D., Professor of Psychology at Princeton University
“All the time and effort that people devote to picking the hot hand, the great manager, have in most cases led to no advantage.”
Peter Lynch, Manager of the Fidelity Magellan Fund
“The only value of stock forecasters is to make fortune tellers look good.”(1)
Chairman, Berkshire Hathaway, Inc.
“The ability to foresee that some things cannot be foreseen is a very necessary quality.”
Jean Jacques Rousseau (1712 - 1778) French philosopher and writer
“There are two times in a man’s life when he should not speculate: when he can’t afford it and when he can.”
“I have become increasingly convinced that the past records of mutual fund managers are essentially worthless in predicting future success. The few examples of consistently superior performance occur no more frequently than can be expected by chance.”
Burton G. Malkiel, Author, A Random Walk Down Wall Street